湄公河战略资本报告：受中东冲突引发的燃油价格冲击，柬埔寨2026年GDP增长预期或降至2%

[来源: CIR] [分类提示: NEWS] 标题: Cambodia’s 2026 GDP Outlook Could Drop to 2% as Middle East Conflict Drives Fuel Shock Risks, Mekong Strategic Capital Report Says Cambodia Investment Review Cambodia’s economic growth outlook for 2026 could slow sharply to between 2% and 2.5%, down from an earlier expectation of around 4%, as the fallout from conflict in the Middle East pushes up fuel prices and adds pressure to an already uneven domestic economy, according to a new report by Mekong Strategic Capital. The analysis said Cambodia entered 2026 with a “two-speed economy,” where goods exports and parts of manufacturing were showing resilience, while tourism, real estate and some domestic sectors remained under pressure. The escalation in the Middle East, however, has created a fresh external shock through higher oil prices, disrupted shipping routes and rising transport costs. Mekong Strategic Capital said the combined impact could reduce Cambodia’s growth rate by 1.5 to 2 percentage points this year, depending on how long the disruption lasts and whether global energy markets stabilize. Fuel Costs Add Broad Inflation Pressure The report warned that Cambodia faces a broad inflation shock rather than simply higher fuel prices at the pump. It estimated the conflict could add between 1.5 and 3.2 percentage points to inflation in 2026, above a previous baseline of around 2%. Read More: Economists Say “Smooth The Shock, Target The Pain, and Address Potential Shortages” as 2026 GDP Forecast To ~3% Amid Global Oil S