湄公战略资本下调柬埔寨今年增速至2.7% 明年看6%
分类经济
事件时间2026-10-21
地点金边
来源Cambodia Investment Review
发布时间2026/11/04 13:04
详情描述
湄公战略资本（MSC）管理合伙人斯蒂芬·希金斯10月21日在金边澳大利亚商会（AusCham）的说明会上给出预测：柬埔寨2026年经济增长约2.7%，2027年回升至6%。2026年的数字较MSC此前2.5%的预测有所上调，理由是制造业出口强于预期；但MSC同时指出，除疫情期间外，这仍是17年来最弱的增长水平。
出口是这一预测的主要支撑。说明会引用的海关数据显示，2026年前九个月商品出口同比增长18%，除服装、鞋类和旅行用品以外的制成品出口增长49%。其中橡胶出口同比增66%，比去年同期多出约9.31亿美元；电机类出口增长40%。
与出口相反，旅游业、家庭消费和金融部门仍未恢复。希金斯在演示中称，柬埔寨自2019年以来没有出现过“正常”年份，并列举了疫情、诈骗园区活动、泰柬边境冲突以及房地产相关金融压力的累积影响。
对在柬经营或投资的人来说，需要盯住的是2027年6%反弹的前提，即制造业出口订单能否延续。前九个月的数据显示，除服装鞋类旅行用品外的制成品出口增速（49%）远高于整体出口（18%），橡胶与电机是主要拉动项；这几类产品订单一旦回落，从2.7%到6%的跳升就缺少支撑。同时，出口数据亮眼并不代表内需同步回暖，旅游业、消费与金融部门的走向仍决定这轮增长能否传导到本地市场。
📋 简要摘要 ▸
湄公战略资本(MSC)在澳大利亚商会10月21日的说明会上给出预测：柬埔寨2026年经济增长约2.7%，2027年回升至6%。支撑主要来自制造业出口强劲，其中橡胶出口同比增66%、增加约9.31亿美元，电机类出口增40%；但旅游业、家庭消费与金融部门仍承压。MSC管理合伙人斯蒂芬·希金斯称，柬埔寨自2019年以来没有出现过"正常"年份。
📋 完整原文 ▸
[来源: CIR] [分类提示: NEWS]
标题: Cambodia’s Export Boom Masks Domestic Strain as MSC Forecasts 6% Growth in 2027
Cambodia Investment Review
Cambodia’s economy is forecast to grow 2.7% in 2026 before rebounding to 6% next year, according to Mekong Strategic Capital (MSC), as strong manufacturing exports offset pressure on tourism, household spending and the financial sector.
Stephen Higgins, Managing Partner of MSC, presented the outlook at an Australian Chamber of Commerce (AusCham) briefing on October 21, 2026.
“The Cambodian economy hasn’t had a ‘normal’ year since 2019,” the presentation stated, highlighting the cumulative effects of the pandemic, scam-centre activity, the Thai border conflict and property-related financial pressures.
MSC raised its 2026 forecast from 2.5%, reflecting stronger manufacturing exports. Nevertheless, it expects the weakest growth in 17 years outside the pandemic period.
Exports drive industrial growth
Goods exports rose 18% in the first nine months of 2026, according to customs figures presented in the briefing. Manufactured exports outside garments, footwear and travel goods increased 49%, highlighting Cambodia’s expanding industrial base.
Read More: MSC Report: Government Stimulus and Tourism Revival Could Determine Cambodia Avoiding Weakest Growth in Nearly Two Decades as 2026 Growth Forecast Cut to 2.5%
Rubber exports climbed 66%, adding approximately $931 million compared with the same period last year. Electrical machinery exports rose 40%, while furniture and beddi