柬埔寨2026年经济增长放缓至2.7% 服务业萎缩成主因
分类经济
地点金边
来源柬埔寨投资评论
发布时间2026/08/29 14:05
详情描述
据柬埔寨投资评论（CIR）援引湄公战略资本（MSC）发布的报告显示，柬埔寨2026年经济增长预计将放缓至2.7%，为近17年以来除新冠疫情期间外的最低水平。
该报告指出，柬埔寨经济呈现“双速”发展态势。一方面，工业领域表现强劲，预计今年将增长7.1%；另一方面，服务业出现萎缩，预计降幅达2.1%，抵消了工业增长带来的积极影响。
在服务业方面，餐饮与住宿业受冲击最为严重，预计将萎缩15.5%。数据预测，2026年柬埔寨国际游客量将下滑27%，国内旅游业也将下降5%。
MSC的增长预测低于多家机构及政府的预期。目前，柬埔寨政府预测增长率为4.1%，东盟与中日韩宏观经济研究办公室（AMRO）预测为4.2%，亚洲开发银行预测为4.1%，世界银行预测为3.9%，国际货币基金组织（IMF）则预测为3%。
尽管2026年经济增长面临压力，但MSC预计，随着旅游、金融服务及房地产行业的复苏，柬埔寨经济增长有望在2027年回升至6%。
📋 简要摘要 ▸
受服务业萎缩影响，柬埔寨2026年经济增长预计放缓至2.7%，为17年来最低水平。其中餐饮住宿业预计萎缩15.5%，国际游客量下滑27%，预计2027年将回升至6%。
📋 完整原文 ▸
[来源: CIR] [分类提示: NEWS]
标题: MSC Report: Cambodia’s Economy Faces ‘Two-Speed’ 2026 as Services Slump, Industry Surges
Cambodia Investment Review
Cambodia’s economic growth could slow to 2.7 percent in 2026—its weakest performance in 17 years outside the Covid-19 period—as a sharp contraction in services offsets continued strength in manufacturing and exports, according to Mekong Strategic Capital (MSC).
The Phnom Penh-based advisory firm expects growth to recover to 6 percent in 2027, above forecasts from several international institutions, as tourism, financial services and real estate begin recovering from a weak 2026.
MSC described Cambodia as a “two-speed economy,” with industry forecast to expand by 7.1 percent this year while services contract by 2.1 percent.
Services Downturn Weighs on Headline Growth
MSC’s 2.7 percent forecast is below the Cambodian government’s 4.1 percent projection, AMRO’s 4.2 percent estimate, the Asian Development Bank’s 4.1 percent outlook, the World Bank’s 3.9 percent forecast and the International Monetary Fund’s 3 percent projection.
Read More: MSC Report: Government Stimulus and Tourism Revival Could Determine Cambodia Avoiding Weakest Growth in Nearly Two Decades as 2026 Growth Forecast Cut to 2.5%
The difference largely reflects MSC’s more pessimistic assessment of the services sector.
Accommodation and food services are forecast to contract by 15.5 percent, with MSC assuming international tourist arrivals will fall by 27 percent and domestic tourism by 5 percent